Now is the Time for Democrats to Unite behind Hillary
The stakes are too high this time. Some of us might believe that a Donald Trump presidency is unlikely, but we can’t afford to take a chance. Democrats need to get together, and sooner rather than later. Like it or not, the general election season is already here. It will be Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton. The sooner Democrats collectively recognize this reality, the more likely we are to prevent a disaster for the United States.
For those of you who are supporting Bernie Sanders:
The facts are undeniable. Hillary Clinton WILL be the nominee of the Democratic Party. It’s time to face the math.
Here is the math. I am using numbers from Real Clear Politics, updated as of this writing. The numbers are in the next few paragraphs. If you want to skim over that part, here is a summary. Bernie Sanders needs 85% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination. Even using his most recent argument, that superdelegates should be allocated according to the winner of each state (something that isn’t going to happen), he would still need 75% of the remaining delegates in order to win the nomination. Whether you accept the reality of the 85% number or the hypothetical 75% number, Bernie Sanders is going to fall well short of the nomination.
There are a total of 4,763 delegates in the Democratic nomination process, including 712 superdelegates. It takes a majority of total delegates, or 2,382, in order to secure the nomination. Without the superdelegates, there are 4,051 delegates awarded. It takes 2,026 of these for a majority.
As of this writing, Hillary Clinton has 1,683 allocated delegates plus 522 superdelegates for a total of 2,205; Bernie Sanders has 1,362 allocated delegates plus 39 superdelegates for a total of 1,401.
Bernie needs 85% of all remaining delegates in order to take the nomination away from Hillary. That simply is not going to happen. Every state awards delegates proportionally. Bernie Sanders has never won 85% of the delegates in any state he has won, except for his home state of Vermont. He can’t possibly get 85% of California, for example. Even in the impossible case of Sanders winning 100% of every remaining state except California, Hillary would only need 37% of California delegates - even if Bernie somehow got ALL of the California superdelegates on his side.
The reality is that Sanders will not win 100% of the other states. The reality is that Hillary will do much better than 37% of California. The reality is that Sanders will not get all of the superdelegates on his side.
What about those superdelegates? Bernie Sanders is now claiming that his strategy is to win them over to his side. He says that he will argue that they should support the winner of their states’ primaries and caucuses.
First of all, they won’t buy into it. The fact is that the support of many of these superdelegates for Hillary Clinton is not negotiable. Bernie Sanders does not have a valid case. Hillary has won the national popular vote by a wide margin. Hillary has won the allocated delegates by a wide margin.
But for the sake of argument, what if they would agree to this idea? What if the superdelegates were awarded according to which candidate won each state?
Hillary Clinton has won a majority of the allocated delegates. She would also win a majority of the superdelegates under this scenario. Hillary would have 373 superdelegates so far, and Bernie would have 156 so far. If you add those numbers to the allocated delegates so far, Hillary would have 2,056 total delegates and Bernie would have 1,518 total delegates. The magic number for winning the nomination would still be 2,382. With 1,157 delegates remaining, Bernie Sanders would need 864 of them. That means he would have to win a whopping 75% of the remaining delegates, even if he could get the superdelegates on his side for the reasons he is suggesting. That is simply not going to happen.
Hillary Clinton is the de facto Democratic Party nominee for President. As soon as Bernie Sanders supporters accept this, Democrats can unite against the threat of a Donald Trump presidency.
We cannot afford to have a president who demeans the American people. We need to expand hard-fought rights for women and minorities instead of moving backwards. We need to increase wages instead of electing someone who thinks wages are already too high. We can’t afford to have Donald Trump choose 3 or 4 members of the Supreme Court. We can’t afford to let Republicans retain control of the Senate. We need to protect the security and reputation of the United States. Our allies depend on us to do the right thing.
Democrats need to unite, now. Donald Trump has promised to use talking points provided by Democrats against Hillary Clinton. Such talking points are counterproductive. Hillary is our hope. Our future depends on it. The stakes are too high. We must not mess up this opportunity.